Party Performance in Ecuador since 2006: A Multilevel Model of Volatility and Nationalization
We examine the volatility and nationalization of electoral support for political parties in Ecuador since the emergence of a dominant party system in 2006. Compared to the prior party system, and in light of conventional wisdom about the 1978-2006 party system, one might expect that parties in the new system are less volatile and more nationalized. First, we analyze subnational electoral data using linear mixed models to characterize and compare the main parties during each phase. These models suggest empirical implications of how parties and voters behave during campaigns. Thus, we enrich the quantitative conclusions with case-oriented evidence of the political behavior of these actors.